Investigating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Society Relationships - Working Paper

"Investigating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Society Relationships" by Zebiak et al, looks into climate forecasting on three sectors: water, agriculture and health. It shows the role that forecasting can have as part of planning and response in areas that have large societal impact (beyond the extreme weather events associated in the media with El Niño or La Niña). Abstract:  

"Throughout at least the past several centuries, El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a significant role in human response to climate. Over time, increased attention on ENSO has led to a better understanding of both the physical mechanisms, and the environmental and societal consequences of the phenomenon. The prospects for seasonal climate forecasting emerged from ENSO studies, and were first pursued in ENSO studies. In this paper, we review ENSO's impact on society, specifically with regard to agriculture, water, and health; we also explore the extent to which ENSO‐related forecasts are used to inform decision making in these sectors. We find that there are significant differences in the uptake of forecasts across sectors, with the highest use in agriculture, intermediate use in water resources management, and the lowest in health. Forecast use is low in areas where ENSO linkages to climate are weak, but the strength of this linkage alone does not guarantee use. Moreover, the differential use of ENSO forecasts by sector shows the critical role of institutions that work at the boundary between science and society. In a long‐term iterative process requiring continual maintenance, these organizations serve to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of forecasts and related climate services."

ENSO studies started in the 80's with an important growth in the 90's that led to a better understanding of its consequences and also the development of forecasting tools. How have these tools translated into improved decision-making? By looking at three sectors that are affected by ENSO in a wider geographical area (from the Indian Ocean to the American continent, the authors show the different societal intake of forecasting tools.

Sectors that have previously used weather forecasting (like agriculture and water management) have been the ones that adapted ENSO modelling the most. Previous knowledge of similar tools allowed for users to be comfortable with the models and were conceptually more ready. Entering forecasting in sector that have not previously used it may require a tailored approach with simple quick wins over a longer period of time rather than complex models.

Institutions matter (a much repeated point in development literature), not only their presence (by using already established networks to distribute knowledge like agricultural extension) but also their design (focus on policy, research, awareness raising, best practice implementation, centralized vs decentralized, etc...). Tools have to be seen as relevant to the user, institutional design tell us not only the mandate or objectives but, maybe more importantly, who the user actually is.

Linked to the previous point, forecasts are a decision-making tools should help those making decisions. These seems obvious, but we have to remember that in many instances the users of forecasts are not the final beneficiaries of a decision. For example, a water management board makes decisions that affect water users by managing water flows. The forecasts itself will have to compete with other dynamics within the institution in order to be effective. On the other hand, in the case of agriculture, the farmer may be the recipient of the forecast, the decision-maker and the final beneficiary. That shortened decision-making process may help to explain why it is in agriculture where the uptake of ENSO forecasting tools has been the strongest as the incentives are aligned.

 

Whether we are interested in climate events or not, this paper does point out interesting issues on the usage of forecasting in different settings and sectors, and present lessons learnt that could be transferred to other sectors. Maybe the title is over-ambitious with the "society relationships" part.